Detecting profit shifting in administrative data: A South African perspective

Matthew Amalitinga Abagna, Ronald B. Davies and Miroslav Palanský

No wp-2026-43, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: This paper develops a data-driven methodology for detecting potential profit shifting by multinational enterprises in South Africa. Drawing on detailed administrative tax and customs data, we construct a series of red-flag indicators based on firm-level profitability, intra-group transactions, and trade with tax haven jurisdictions. A firm is flagged only if it persistently reports profits below its industry average while exhibiting at least one additional red flag related to related-party debt, service payments, or haven-linked trade.

Keywords: Profit shifting; Multinational firms; Corporate tax; Administrative data; Developing countries; South Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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