Land-use dynamics, agricultural productivity, and forest conservation policy design

Olli-Pekka Kuusela and Jussi Lintunen

No wp-2026-95, WIDER Working Paper Series from World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)

Abstract: Agricultural productivity and its future path vary widely across countries, as does the price elasticity of demand for agricultural goods. These differences, driven by technology, trade exposure, development, and climate-change impacts, matter for the design of primary forest conservation policies. We develop a dynamic model with primary forests, age-structured secondary forests, and agricultural land to study forest transitions with two instruments, payments for ecosystem services (PES), and land-conversion taxes. Our central result is that the optimal PES is regime dependent.

Keywords: Forests and forestry; Ecosystem; Land conservation; Taxes; Brazil; Amazon; Carbon pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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