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Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles

Stefano Magrini (), Margherita Gerolimetto () and Hasan Engin Duran ()

No 2011_06, Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari"

Abstract: The analysis of synchronization among regional or national business cycles has recently been attracting a growing interest within the economic literature. Far less attention has instead been devoted to a closely related issue: given a certain level of synchronization, some economies might be systematically ahead of others along the swings of the business cycle. In other words, there could be a lead/lag structure in which some economies systematically lead or lag behind others. In the present paper we aim at providing a thorough analysis of the lead/lag structure among a system of regional economies. This task is achieved in two steps. First, we show that leading (or lagging behind) is a feature that does not occur at random across the economies. Second, we investigate the economic drivers that could explain such a behavior. To do so, we employ data for 48 conterminous US states between 1979 and 2010.

Keywords: Regional business cycles; lead/lag structure; synchronization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F40 O18 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo and nep-ure
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