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Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 1

Judith A. Giles () and Cara L. Williams
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Judith Anne Clarke ()

No 1, Econometrics Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Victoria

Abstract: The economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centers on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We contribute to this literature in two ways. In this paper, part 1, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than one hundred and fifty export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used to empirically examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings. The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies that focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show, in part 2, that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not typically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications - Oxley's (1993) study for Portugal, and Henriques and Sadorsky's (1996) analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.

Keywords: economic growth; export promotion; causality; time series models; cointegration; innovation accounting. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F34 O11 O51 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2000-01-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (113) Track citations by RSS feed

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Related works:
Journal Article: Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1 (2001) Downloads
Journal Article: Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2 (2001) Downloads
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