Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2

Judith A. Giles (jgiles@uvic.ca) and Cara L. Williams
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Judith Anne Clarke (jaclarke@uvic.ca)

No 2, Econometrics Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Victoria

Abstract: This paper continues the investigation of Giles and Williams (2000) on export-led growth (ELG). In the first part, we surveyed the empirical export-led growth literature; it was evident that Granger noncausality tests are commonly applied as a test for ELG. In this paper, we explore the sensitivity of the test for exclusions restrictions often used as the Granger noncauality test for ELG by reconsidering two applications: Oxley’s (1993) study for Portugal and Henriques and Sadorsky’s (1996) analysis for Canada. We focus on robustness to the method adopted to deal with nonstationarity, including the choice of deterministic trend degree. We show that different noncausality outcomes are easy to obtain, and consequently we recommend that readers interpret the empirical ELG literature with care. Our analysis also highlights the importance of examining the robustness of Granger noncauality test results to avoid spurious outcomes in applications.

Keywords: economic growth; causality; time series models; robustness; misspecification; model dimension; cointegration. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F34 O11 O51 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2000-01-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (120)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1 (2001)
Journal Article: Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2 (2001)
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