Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections

John Creedy and Kathleen Makale

No 18780, Working Paper Series from Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance

Abstract: This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.

Keywords: Population; Projections; Stochastic simulation; Social expenditure; Fiscal costs; New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/18780

Related works:
Journal Article: Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections (2014)
Working Paper: Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:18780

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance School of Accounting & Commercial Law, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Library Technology Services ().