Do Elections Reduce Partisan Misperceptions? Evidence from a Democratic Transition in Bangladesh

Ryo Takahashi, Keisaku Higashida (), Yuki Higuchi (), Mohammad Mosharraf Hossain () and Yuki Nihei ()
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Keisaku Higashida: School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University
Yuki Higuchi: Faculty of Economics and Sophia Institute for Human Security, Sophia University
Mohammad Mosharraf Hossain: Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong
Yuki Nihei: Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University

No 2605, Working Papers from Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics

Abstract: We examine whether democratic elections correct citizens’ misperceptions about opposing partisans’ commitment to democracy. Using repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted immediately before and after Bangladesh’s first competitive national election in nearly two decades, we measure respondents’ own democratic beliefs and their perceptions of rival partisans’ beliefs. Prior to the election, opposition supporters held substantially more skeptical views about the election-winning party’s democratic commitment than its own supporters. After the election, opposition supporters revised these perceptions upward by roughly 10 percentage points. However, this belief correction did not translate into improved institutional attitudes. Opposition supporters who updated their beliefs about opponents reported declines in economic expectations, perceived electoral accountability, and trust in politicians. Non-voters showed the opposite pattern, reporting improved institutional evaluations without belief updating. Elections can thus correct what citizens believe about one another, but not what they expect from democratic institutions.

Keywords: false polarization; second-order beliefs; democratic transition; winner–loser gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D8 P0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2026-05
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