Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks

Rosa Hayes (), Masami Imai and Cameron Shelton
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Rosa Hayes: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

No 2013-009, Wesleyan Economics Working Papers from Wesleyan University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990-2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home-grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters—all conditions which have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problems—do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth.

Keywords: Economic voting; Political agency problem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2013-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-mac and nep-pol
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http://repec.wesleyan.edu/pdf/mimai/2013009_imai.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: ATTRIBUTION ERROR IN ECONOMIC VOTING: EVIDENCE FROM TRADE SHOCKS (2015)
Working Paper: Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence From Trade Shocks (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wes:weswpa:2013-009

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