Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence From Trade Shocks

Masami Imai, Cameron Shelton and Rosa Hayes

No e073, Working Papers from Tokyo Center for Economic Research

Abstract: This paper exploits the international transmission of business cycles to examine the prevalence of attribution error in economic voting in a large panel of countries from 1990-2009. We find that voters, on average, exhibit a strong tendency to oust incumbent governments during an economic downturn, regardless of whether the recession is home-grown or merely imported from trading partners. However, we find important heterogeneity in the extent of attribution error. A split sample analysis shows that countries with more experienced voters, more educated voters, and possibly more informed voters "all conditions which have been shown to mitigate other voter agency problem" do better in distinguishing imported from domestic growth.

Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2014-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-mac and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: ATTRIBUTION ERROR IN ECONOMIC VOTING: EVIDENCE FROM TRADE SHOCKS (2015)
Working Paper: Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e73

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