Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve

Kenneth Kuttner and Tim Robinson

No 2008-15, Department of Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics, Williams College

Abstract: Policy-makers have recently noted an apparent flattening of the Phillips curve. The implications of such a change include that a positive output gap would be less inflationary, but the cost of reducing inflation, once established, would increase. This paper's objective is to review the evidence and possible explanations for the flattening of the Phillips curve in the context of new-Keynesian economic theory. Using data for the United States and Australia, we find that the flattening is evident in the baseline "structural" new-Keynesian Phillips curve. We consider a variety of reasons for this structural flattening, such as data problems, globalisation and alternative definitions of marginal cost, none of which is entirely satisfactory.

Keywords: Phillips curve; inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2008-05
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Forthcoming in the North American Journal of Economics and Finance.

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Journal Article: Understanding the flattening Phillips curve (2010)
Working Paper: Understanding the Flattening Phillips Curve (2008)
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