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The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth

Quamrul Ashraf (), David Weil () and Joshua Wilde ()

No 2013-11, Department of Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics, Williams College

Abstract: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection in Nigeria. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.

Keywords: Fertility; Population size; Age structure; Child quality; Worker experience; Labor force participation; Capital accumulation; Natural resources; Income per capita (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 J11 J13 J18 J21 J22 J24 O11 O13 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-08, Revised 2013-02
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Published in the Population and Development Review, March 2013, 39(1), pp. 97-103.

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Journal Article: The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth (2013) Downloads
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