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The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth

Quamrul Ashraf (), David Weil () and Joshua Wilde ()

No 251, CID Working Papers from Center for International Development at Harvard University

Abstract: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.

Keywords: Fertility; Population size; Age structure; Child quality; Worker experience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 J11 J13 J18 J21 J22 J24 O11 O13 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-10
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Related works:
Journal Article: The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth (2013) Downloads
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