In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries - Demographic versus economic-geographical approaches

Leo JG Van Wissen (), Nicole Gaag (), Phil Rees () and John Stillwell ()

ERSA conference papers from European Regional Science Association

Abstract: Internal migration is the most volatile and difficult to predict component of regional demographic change. A pure demographic approach using age and sex-specific parameters of migration intensities cannot fully capture the migration trends over time. One of the approaches that can be used for a better description of past trends and forecasting of future trends is to use additional non-demographic information such as regional economic indicators. In this paper we compare the predictive performance of pure demographic and extended economic-geographical models using data of four European countries at the so-called NUTS 2 level. The models are nested within a GLM specification%2C that allows both demographic and extended models to be written as specific cases of loglinear models. Therefore model fit and performance can be compared directly.

Date: 2005-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-geo
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p787

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