A Spatial Economic Model and Spatial Econometric Analysis of Population Dynamics in Brazilian MCAs

J.Paul Elhorst, Diego Firmino Costa da Silva and Raul Silveira Neto ()

ERSA conference papers from European Regional Science Association

Abstract: To extend existing population growth models, this article proposes a theoretical setting including spatial interaction effects. Using data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian Minimum Comparable Areas (MCA) over the period 1970-2010, this extension is tested by estimating a dynamic spatial panel model. The authors also compare the performance of a wide range of potential neighborhood matrices using Bayesian posterior model probabilities. Six of the thirteen determinants of population growth considered produce significant spatial interaction effects. Moreover, five produce significant long-term spatial spillover effects; a mathematical analysis reveals the strength of this result, which requires more than a single parameter. Treating areas as independent entities, as many previous population growth studies have done, underestimates the impact of various policy measures.

Keywords: Population growth; spatial interaction and spillovers; dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-10
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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https://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa15/e150825aFinal00083.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: A SPATIAL ECONOMIC MODEL AND SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS IN BRAZILIAN MCAS (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa15p83

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