Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983))

J. Armstrong

General Economics and Teaching from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Rosenstone develops a causal model to forecast political voting. The model seems reasonable; for example, it includes information about party, key issues, the economy, war, incumbency, region, and trends over time. Standard econometric methods are then used to determine how much weight should be given to each factor. The conditions are then forecasted for each of the 50 states, and the weights are applied to give state-by-state forecasts. Aggregation across states provides forecasts of both the popular and electoral votes for presidential elections.

Keywords: forecasting; presidential elections; review (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19026 pages
Date: 2005-02-04
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 19026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/get/papers/0502/0502024.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502024

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in General Economics and Teaching from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by EconWPA ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).