Details about J. Scott Armstrong

This author is deceased (2023-09-28).

Access statistics for papers by J. Scott Armstrong.

Last updated 2024-02-05. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: par65

---

Jump to Journal Articles Books Chapters

Working Papers

2017

1. Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

2014

2. Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative, Journal of Business Research, Elsevier (2015) View citations (46) (2015)

2012

3. Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies, Journal of Business Research, Elsevier (2013) View citations (38) (2013)
4. Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
5. Moneyball: a Message for Managers
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
6. Natural Learning in Higher Education
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

2011

7. Illusions in Regression Analysis
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)

2009

8. Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
9. Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2011) View citations (8) (2011)

2008

10. Benchmark forecasts for climate change
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
11. Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)
12. Predicting elections from politicians’ faces
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (5)

2007

13. Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (16)
    Also in Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2005) View citations (5)
14. Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
15. Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts, Energy & Environment (2007) View citations (8) (2007)
16. Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters (2007) View citations (23) (2007)
17. Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit, Interfaces, INFORMS (2008) View citations (4) (2008)
18. Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (46)
    See also Journal Article Significance tests harm progress in forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2007) View citations (47) (2007)
19. Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)

2005

20. Advocacy and Objectivity in Science
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Advocacy and Objectivity in Science, Management Science, INFORMS (1979) View citations (12) (1979)
21. Analyzing Quantitative Models
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1974) View citations (2)
22. Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
23. Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
24. Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
25. Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
26. Brand Trial After a Credibility Change
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
27. Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1971) View citations (7)
28. Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
29. Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney)
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
30. Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
31. Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
32. Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition)
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
33. Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    See also Journal Article Communication of research on forecasting: The journal, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (1988) (1988)
34. Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    See also Journal Article Damped seasonality factors: Introduction, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2004) View citations (1) (2004)
35. Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2005) View citations (6) (2005)
36. Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (5)
37. Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1967) View citations (10)
38. Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
39. Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1993) View citations (5)
40. Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (110)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1977) View citations (2464)
41. Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
42. Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research, Interfaces, INFORMS (1984) View citations (19) (1984)
43. Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
44. Forecasting for Marketing
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1999) View citations (5)
45. How Expert Are the Experts?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany (2005)
46. How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
47. How to Avoid Exploratory Research
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1970) View citations (9)
48. Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
49. Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
50. Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
51. Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments)
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
52. Market Share Superstition (Letter)
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
53. Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1975) View citations (13)
54. On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
55. On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1968) View citations (9)
56. Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
57. Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
58. Publication Bias Against Null Results
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
59. Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial)
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
60. Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
61. Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
62. Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
63. Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary*
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
64. Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)
65. Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1987) View citations (9)
66. Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
67. Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
68. Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985)
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
69. Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983))
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
70. Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
71. Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
72. Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1983) View citations (4)
73. Structured Analogies for Forecasting
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2004) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Structured analogies for forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2007) View citations (31) (2007)
74. Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
    Also in General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
75. The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
76. The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
77. The Devil s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student s Claim that Research Harms Learning
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
78. The Graffiti Solution
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
79. The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
80. The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
81. The Profitability of Winning
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
82. The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: Reply, Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell (1986) View citations (2) (1986)
83. The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts?
    Others, University Library of Munich, Germany
    See also Journal Article The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters (2005) (2005)
84. Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
85. Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004) View citations (1)

2004

86. A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1972) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting, Management Science, INFORMS (1972) View citations (8) (1972)
87. Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)
88. Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
89. Designing and Using Experiential Exercises
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
90. Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    See also Journal Article Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals, Journal of Business Research, Elsevier (2003) View citations (20) (2003)
91. Eclectic Research and Construct Validation
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
92. Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1994) View citations (3)
93. Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
94. Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results*
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1994) View citations (19)
95. Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (2)
96. Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan?
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1985) View citations (3)
97. Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (5)
98. Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
99. Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series
    General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (7)
100. Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)
101. Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
102. Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings*
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
     See also Journal Article Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (1989) View citations (13) (1989)
103. Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
104. Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
105. Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (10)
     See also Journal Article Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations, Management Science, INFORMS (1992) View citations (72) (1992)
106. Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
107. Social Irresponsibility in Management
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
     See also Journal Article Social irresponsibility in management, Journal of Business Research, Elsevier (1977) View citations (46) (1977)
108. Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
     Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (1991) View citations (2)
109. Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
110. The Graffiti Problem
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
111. The Natural Learning Project
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
112. The Panalba Role Playing Case
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (5)
113. The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (5)
114. The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing
     General Economics and Teaching, University Library of Munich, Germany
     See also Journal Article The value of surprising findings for research on marketing, Journal of Business Research, Elsevier (2003) (2003)
115. Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts
     Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (10)

2002

116. Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (8)
     See also Journal Article Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2002) View citations (9) (2002)

2000

117. Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (34)
     See also Journal Article Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2000) View citations (36) (2000)

1997

118. Review of Co-opetition by Adam M. Brandenburger and Barry J. Nalebuff
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

1996

119. Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (59)

1991

120. Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (10)
     See also Journal Article Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc. (1991) View citations (10) (1991)

1990

121. Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed Questionnaires: Evidence from Meta-analysis
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

1988

122. Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

1982

123. The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: review of empirical research
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (53)
     See also Journal Article The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: Review of empirical research, Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell (1982) View citations (47) (1982)

1978

124. Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (8)
     See also Journal Article Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact, The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press (1978) View citations (9) (1978)

1970

125. An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (11)
126. Exploratory Analysis of Marketing Data: Trees vs. Regression
     MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)

Journal Articles

2019

1. Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries
   PLOS ONE, 2019, 14, (1), 1-14

2018

2. Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists
   Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science, 2018, 28, (2), 103-159 View citations (8)

2015

3. Decomposition of time-series by level and change
   Journal of Business Research, 2015, 68, (8), 1755-1758 View citations (4)
4. Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you
   Journal of Business Research, 2015, 68, (8), 1768-1771 View citations (2)
5. Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative
   Journal of Business Research, 2015, 68, (8), 1717-1731 View citations (46)
   See also Working Paper Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative, MPRA Paper (2014) View citations (3) (2014)
6. Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence
   Journal of Business Research, 2015, 68, (8), 1678-1685 View citations (53)

2014

7. Combining forecasts: An application to elections
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (1), 43-54 View citations (50)
8. Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue*
   Political Science Research and Methods, 2014, 2, (1), 141-149 View citations (1)

2013

9. Combined Forecasts of the 2012 Election: The PollyVote
   Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2013, (28), 50-51 View citations (1)
10. Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies
    Journal of Business Research, 2013, 66, (10), 1922-1927 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies, MPRA Paper (2012) View citations (2) (2012)
11. Research with In-built replications: Comment and further suggestions for replication research
    Journal of Business Research, 2013, 66, (9), 1406-1408 View citations (8)
12. The Ombudsman: Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review
    Interfaces, 2013, 43, (6), 580-589 View citations (8)
13. The Ombudsman: Is the Evidence Sufficient to Take Action on Executive Pay? Reply to Commentators
    Interfaces, 2013, 43, (6), 602-604

2012

14. Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2012, (25), 31-34 View citations (2)
15. The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2012, (24), 13-14

2011

16. Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, (1), 183-195 View citations (43)
    Also in International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, (1), 183-195 (2011) View citations (42)
17. Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries
    Journal of Business Research, 2011, 64, (7), 693-695 View citations (3)
18. Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method
    Journal of Business Research, 2011, 64, (7), 699-706 View citations (14)
19. Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm
    Energy & Environment, 2011, 22, (8), 1091-1104 View citations (1)
20. Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, (1), 69-80 View citations (8)
    Also in International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27, (1), 69-80 (2011) View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts, MPRA Paper (2009) View citations (1) (2009)

2010

21. Replications of forecasting research
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, 26, (1), 4-8 View citations (12)

2009

22. Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2009, (12), 41-42 View citations (3)
23. Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (4), 826-832 View citations (8)

2008

24. Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
    Interfaces, 2008, 38, (5), 382-405 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit, MPRA Paper (2007) View citations (3) (2007)
25. The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?
    Interfaces, 2008, 38, (2), 125-139 View citations (6)

2007

26. Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (3), 445-447
27. Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts
    Energy & Environment, 2007, 18, (7), 997-1021 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts, MPRA Paper (2007) View citations (9) (2007)
28. Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2007, (8), 17-20 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared, MPRA Paper (2007) View citations (24) (2007)
29. P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (2), 339-342
30. Replication research's disturbing trend
    Journal of Business Research, 2007, 60, (4), 411-415 View citations (45)
31. Significance tests harm progress in forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (2), 321-327 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting, MPRA Paper (2007) View citations (46) (2007)
32. Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (2), 335-336 View citations (7)
33. Structured analogies for forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (3), 365-376 View citations (31)
    See also Working Paper Structured Analogies for Forecasting, General Economics and Teaching (2005) View citations (1) (2005)
34. The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts
    Interfaces, 2007, 37, (3), 287-299 View citations (2)

2006

35. Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2006, 22, (3), 583-598 View citations (49)
36. Making progress in forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2006, 22, (3), 433-441 View citations (9)
37. Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings?
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2006, (5), 3-8 View citations (4)
38. The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2006, (3), 10-13

2005

39. Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 21, (1), 25-36 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series, General Economics and Teaching (2005) View citations (6) (2005)
40. How We Computed the Pollyvote
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2005, (1), 51-52 View citations (4)
41. The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2005, (1), 29-35 View citations (8)
42. The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?
    Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2005, (2), 50-52
    See also Working Paper The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts?, Others (2005) (2005)

2004

43. Damped seasonality factors: Introduction
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 20, (4), 525-527 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction, General Economics and Teaching (2005) (2005)

2003

44. Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals
    Journal of Business Research, 2003, 56, (1), 69-84 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals, General Economics and Teaching (2004) (2004)
45. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2003, 19, (4), 760-761
46. The Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project
    Interfaces, 2003, 33, (6), 91-111 View citations (11)
47. The value of surprising findings for research on marketing
    Journal of Business Research, 2003, 56, (1), 91-92
    See also Working Paper The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing, General Economics and Teaching (2004) (2004)

2002

48. "How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2002, 18, (3), 482-483 View citations (1)
49. Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2002, 18, (3), 345-352 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment, MPRA Paper (2002) View citations (8) (2002)

2001

50. Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2001, 17, (2), 143-157 View citations (26)
51. Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces
    Journal of Forecasting, 2001, 20, (4), 273-83 View citations (5)

2000

52. An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 16, (4), 477-484 View citations (10)
53. Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 16, (3), 383-397 View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?, MPRA Paper (2000) View citations (34) (2000)

1997

54. The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting: R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1997, 13, (1), 151-153

1996

55. Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms: William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (2), 321-322
56. Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series: P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (2), 319-321
57. Journal of business forecasting: John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (1), 185-186
58. Journal of economic literature: Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (1), 183-184 View citations (4)
59. Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test: Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (2), 322-323
60. Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (2), 299-302 View citations (1)
61. The Ombudsman: Management Folklore and Management Science—On Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias, and Such
    Interfaces, 1996, 26, (4), 25-55 View citations (6)
62. The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis: Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (2), 317-318
63. Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees: H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (2), 318-319

1995

64. Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1995, 11, (4), 591-597 View citations (29)

1994

65. An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election: Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (3), 473-474
66. Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results: Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (3), 471-472
67. Judgmental decomposition: when does it work?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (4), 495-506 View citations (2)
68. Marketing letters: Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (4), 647-647
69. Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (4), 647-649
70. Research Report—Principles for Examining Predictive Validity: The Case of Information Systems Spending Forecasts
    Information Systems Research, 1994, 5, (2), 170-179 View citations (3)
71. The Ombudsman: Business School Prestige—Research versus Teaching
    Interfaces, 1994, 24, (2), 13-43 View citations (7)
72. The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (1), 147-149 View citations (1)

1993

73. A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts: Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (3), 431-431
74. Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison: R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (3), 429-430
75. Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (1), 137-138
76. Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives": Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (1), 137-137 View citations (1)
77. The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts: Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (3), 431-432

1992

78. Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (4), 543-544
79. Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (1), 69-80 View citations (264)
80. Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (4), 575-582 View citations (27)
81. Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (1), 107-109
82. Management science: D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (2), 277-279
83. Public opinion quarterly: Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1992, 8, (2), 279-279
84. Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations
    Management Science, 1992, 38, (10), 1394-1414 View citations (72)
    See also Working Paper Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations, General Economics and Teaching (2004) View citations (10) (2004)

1991

85. A cautionary tale about multiple regression: Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 7, (2), 252-252
86. Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices
    Journal of Consumer Research, 1991, 18, (2), 251-56 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices, MPRA Paper (1991) View citations (10) (1991)
87. The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior: Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 7, (1), 117-118

1989

88. Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5, (4), 585-588 View citations (32)
89. Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5, (4), 467-468
90. Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5, (2), 187-194 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings*, General Economics and Teaching (2004) (2004)

1988

91. Communication of research on forecasting: The journal
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (3), 321-324
    See also Working Paper Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal, General Economics and Teaching (2005) (2005)
92. Harvard Business Review: David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (1), 164-165 View citations (1)
93. International journal of public administration: Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (1), 161-162
94. Journal of personality and social psychology: Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (3), 514-514
95. Organizational behavior and human decision processes: Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (3), 513-513
96. Public opinion quarterly: Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (1), 167-167
97. Public opinion quarterly: James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (1), 165-166
98. Public opinion quarterly: Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (1), 166-167
99. Public opinion quarterly: William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (1), 162-164 View citations (1)
100. The great depression of 1990: Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95
     International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (3), 493-495

1987

101. Editorial
     International Journal of Forecasting, 1987, 3, (3-4), 351-351

1986

102. The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960--1984
     Interfaces, 1986, 16, (1), 89-109 View citations (8)
103. The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: Reply
     Strategic Management Journal, 1986, 7, (2), 183-185 View citations (2)
     See also Working Paper The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply, General Economics and Teaching (2005) View citations (7) (2005)

1985

104. From the editors
     International Journal of Forecasting, 1985, 1, (1), 1-1
105. J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66
     International Journal of Forecasting, 1985, 1, (4), 309-310

1984

106. Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research
     Interfaces, 1984, 14, (6), 52-66 View citations (19)
     See also Working Paper Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research, General Economics and Teaching (2005) View citations (3) (2005)

1983

107. The Ombudsman: Cheating in Management Science
     Interfaces, 1983, 13, (4), 20-29
108. The Ombudsman: Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research
     Interfaces, 1983, 13, (2), 26-38 View citations (5)

1982

109. The Ombudsman: Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears?
     Interfaces, 1982, 12, (5), 62-74
110. The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: Review of empirical research
     Strategic Management Journal, 1982, 3, (3), 197-211 View citations (47)
     See also Working Paper The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: review of empirical research, MPRA Paper (1982) View citations (53) (1982)

1980

111. Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige
     Interfaces, 1980, 10, (2), 80-86 View citations (18)

1979

112. Advocacy and Objectivity in Science
     Management Science, 1979, 25, (5), 423-428 View citations (12)
     See also Working Paper Advocacy and Objectivity in Science, General Economics and Teaching (2005) View citations (5) (2005)

1978

113. Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court
     The Journal of Business, 1978, 51, (4), 595-600
114. Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact
     The Journal of Business, 1978, 51, (4), 549-64 View citations (9)
     See also Working Paper Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact, MPRA Paper (1978) View citations (8) (1978)

1977

115. Social irresponsibility in management
     Journal of Business Research, 1977, 5, (3), 185-213 View citations (46)
     See also Working Paper Social Irresponsibility in Management, General Economics and Teaching (2004) (2004)

1972

116. A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting
     Management Science, 1972, 19, (2), 211-221 View citations (8)
     See also Working Paper A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting, General Economics and Teaching (2004) View citations (1) (2004)

Books

2010

1. Persuasive Advertising
   Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan View citations (1)

Chapters

2010

1. Conclusions
   Palgrave Macmillan
2. Conditions
   Palgrave Macmillan
3. Creativity
   Palgrave Macmillan
4. Evaluating advertisements
   Palgrave Macmillan
5. Introduction
   Palgrave Macmillan
6. The principles
   Palgrave Macmillan
7. Types of evidence
   Palgrave Macmillan