Predicting Job Performance: The Moneyball Factor

J. Armstrong

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2012, issue 25, 31-34

Abstract: Choosing the right person for a given position is a highly complex task, J. Scott Armstrong yet experts believe that their experience allows them to do this well. Michael Lewis’s 2003 book Moneyball and the recent film based on the book provide a counterpoint, showing that the statistical procedures used by Billy Beane, general manager of professional baseball’s Oakland Athletics, are more effective in predicting job performance than are experts’ judgments. In this article, Scott Armstrong traces the emergence of the argument in favor of statistical procedures to writings in the 1950s by Paul Meehl and shows how Meehl’s principles, carried forward by Billy Beane, can be applied to improve business performance today. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:25:p:31-34

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