The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Andreas Graefe (), Randy Jones, J. Armstrong and Alfred Cuzán

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2012, issue 24, 13-14

Abstract: In 2004, Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzán, and Randy Jones launched the PollyVote to see if combining forecasts from different methods could improve the accuracy of election forecasting relative to individual forecasting methods. Scott had previously reported evidence that combining nearly always reduced forecast error below the typical individual method. As you’ll see in this article, Polly has performed up to and perhaps beyond expectations. Now she looks a year ahead (as of this writing) to predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. She thinks it will be close. You can read more about the origin and computation of the PollyVote in an article we printed in the very first issue of Foresight: Cuzán and colleagues (2005). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:13-14

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