Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative

J. Armstrong, Kesten Green and Andreas Graefe

Journal of Business Research, 2015, vol. 68, issue 8, 1717-1731

Abstract: This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods validated for the situation.

Keywords: Analytics; Bias; Big data; Checklists; Combining; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (46)

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Working Paper: Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:8:p:1717-1731

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.031

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