The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis
Francis Diebold,
Glenn Rudebusch and
S. Boragan Aruoba
No 2003/31, CFS Working Paper Series from Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Abstract:
We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. We find strong evidence of the effects of macro variables on future movements in the yield curve and much weaker evidence for a reverse influence. We also relate our results to a traditional macroeconomic approach based on the expectations hypothesis.
Keywords: Yield curve; term structure; interest rates; macroeconomic fundamentals; factor model; state-space model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 E4 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/72638/1/03_31.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
Working Paper: The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis (2003) 
Working Paper: The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis (2003) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200331
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CFS Working Paper Series from Center for Financial Studies (CFS) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().