The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis

S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch

No 2003-18, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. We find strong evidence of the effects of macro variables on future movements in the yield curve and much weaker evidence for a reverse influence. We also relate our results to a traditional macroeconomic approach based on the expectations hypothesis.

Keywords: Interest rates; Macroeconomics; Econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp03-18bk.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis (2003)
Working Paper: The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis (2003)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2003-18

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library ().