Demographic change in Switzerland: Impacts on economic growth in an Overlapping Generations Model
Carsten-Henning Schlag and
No 191, HWWI Research Papers from Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
This paper analyses the macroeconomic implications of a future shift in the age structure of the Swiss population. It estimates the long-run effects for Swiss GDP growth and its components in an Overlapping Generations Model (OLG model). Recent population projections by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) serve as a basis. To document the sensitivity of the results with respect to the demographic assumptions, simulations were undertaken for a range of alternative scenarios concerning fertility, migration and agespecific labor supply. Our projections over the time horizon 2018-2060 document a significant loss in terms of economic growth in both absolute and per capita terms. According to our simulations, this would primarily affect the income of the middle-aged age groups. Likewise, the process of ageing would have consequences for the composition of Swiss GDP: the share of government spending on domestic value added is simulated to increase, due to its demography-related components. A sensitivity analysis reveals that more favourable assumptions concerning future net immigration, fertility and labor market participation could mitigate, but not fully compensate these trends.
Keywords: Ageing; OLG-models; Long-term GDP forecasts; Switzerland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 C68 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cmp, nep-dge, nep-eec and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:191
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