EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Demographic change in Switzerland: Impacts on economic growth in an Overlapping Generations Model

Luisa-Marie Hauser, Carsten-Henning Schlag and André Wolf

No 191, HWWI Research Papers from Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)

Abstract: This paper analyses the macroeconomic implications of a future shift in the age structure of the Swiss population. It estimates the long-run effects for Swiss GDP growth and its components in an Overlapping Generations Model (OLG model). Recent population projections by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) serve as a basis. To document the sensitivity of the results with respect to the demographic assumptions, simulations were undertaken for a range of alternative scenarios concerning fertility, migration and agespecific labor supply. Our projections over the time horizon 2018-2060 document a significant loss in terms of economic growth in both absolute and per capita terms. According to our simulations, this would primarily affect the income of the middle-aged age groups. Likewise, the process of ageing would have consequences for the composition of Swiss GDP: the share of government spending on domestic value added is simulated to increase, due to its demography-related components. A sensitivity analysis reveals that more favourable assumptions concerning future net immigration, fertility and labor market participation could mitigate, but not fully compensate these trends.

Keywords: Ageing; OLG-models; Long-term GDP forecasts; Switzerland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 C68 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cmp, nep-dge, nep-eec and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/216210/1/1696135990.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:191

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in HWWI Research Papers from Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().

 
Page updated 2020-08-01
Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:191