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Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine

Regionale Weizenpreiseffekte von Wetterextremen und Weizenexportkontrollen in Russland und der Ukraine

Linde Götz (), Ivan Djuric () and Oleg Nivievskyi ()

No 154, IAMO Discussion Papers from Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)

Abstract: This paper further builds on the price transmission model framework of existing studies to identify domestic wheat price effects of wheat export controls. We explicitly take the fact into account that a harvest failure causes domestic price effects as well. Moreover, the analysis at the regional level provides further evidence of the functioning of export controls in a large country. Results suggest a pronounced regional heterogeneity in the strength of domestic price effects of the 2010/11 export ban in Russia. The wheat price dampening effects amount to up to 67 % and are strongest in the major wheat exporting region with direct access to the world market. This effect is transmitted to other regions by increased and reversed interregional trade flows. Contrasting, regional variation of export controls´ domestic price effects in Ukraine is rather small.

Keywords: export controls; international trade; agricultural trade policy; Russia; Ukraine; grain markets; food security; extreme weather events; climate change; Exportkontrollen; internationaler Handel; Agrarhandel; Agrarhandelspolitik; Russland; Ukraine; Getreidemärkte; Ernährungssicherung; extreme Wetterereignisse; Klimawandel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E30 Q11 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis and nep-tra
Date: 2016
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