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Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Katja Drechsel, Sebastian Giesen and Axel Lindner
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Katja Heinisch ()

No 4/2014, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we find that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can significantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

Keywords: IMF WEO forecasts; leading indicators; real-time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E02 E32 E37 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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