Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators
Sebastian Giesen and
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Katja Heinisch ()
VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we nd that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can signi cantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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Working Paper: Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100393
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