EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators

Katja Drechsel, Sebastian Giesen and Axel Lindner
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Katja Heinisch ()

VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association

Abstract: This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we nd that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can signi cantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.

JEL-codes: C52 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/100393/1/VfS_2014_pid_637.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators (2014) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100393

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy from Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics ().

 
Page updated 2021-04-13
Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100393