A different kind of oil shock: Why the 2026 Hormuz crisis may not enrich the Gulf, and what that means for Germany

Jochen Pimpertz

No 34/2026, IW-Kurzberichte from Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute

Abstract: Despite the unprecedented scale of the unfolding energy crisis, the Gulf states are unlikely to accrue the kind of windfall profits they captured in 1973 and 1979 - this may worsen the impact of the energy crisis on Germany, which historically profited from Gulf exporters' "recycling" their profits into German industry.

Date: 2026
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