Trump's tariffs: A deal is a deal? An empirical analysis of the effective US import tariff rates on the EU, China and others

Samina Sultan, Daniel Gros and Niccolò Rotondi

No 25/2026, IW-Reports from Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute

Abstract: This Report gives an overview of the effective import tariff rates of the US on its most important trade partners in 2025 and the first months of 2026. Our analysis shows that the average effective bilateral US tariff rate on imports from the European Union (EU) was only 7.8 per cent from Liberation Day in April 2025 to February 2026. This is significantly lower than the announced tariff rates at the time. The effective tariff rates were somewhat higher for some EU Member States, where the manufacturing sector accounts for a larger share of the economy, such as Germany (10.6 per cent) or Italy (9.6 per cent). However, during the same time China faced a much higher effective US tariff rate of almost 37 per cent, while for Japan it was 14 per cent and for the UK 6.3 per cent. Imports from Canada and Mexico, in contrast, were effectively only tariffed at 3.8 per cent. At first sight the differences in average effective tariff rates seem to have had limited impact on trade flows so far as the share of US imports coming from the EU and other industrialized countries have changed only modestly. In contrast, China's share in US imports fell by almost one half between 2024 and 2026, indicating significant trade diversion to the detriment of China. The Report's focus is a deeper analysis of the effects of the US-EU deal, the so-called Turnberry Deal, effective from September 2025 to February 2026.

Date: 2026
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