Transatlantic trade at a crossroads: All-time high despite one year of trade tensions?

Galina Kolev-Schaefer and Samina Sultan

No 32/2026, IW-Reports from Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute

Abstract: As the US celebrates a quarter of a millennium of independence, transatlantic trade relations stand at a crossroads. The year 2025 was marked by the introduction of unprecedented tariffs by the US administration. Despite these tensions, the exchange of goods between the EU and the US climbed to an all-time high of 875 billion euros, with exports of the EU to the US amounting to 580 billion euros, a rise of 7.7 percent, while imports from the US to the EU stood at 295 billion euros, up 2.2 percent (according to balance of payments statistics). The resulting EU goods trade surplus with the US approached 285 billion euros, a new high. Moreover, transatlantic trade in services surpassed 865 billion euros - likewise a record. At first glance, the recordlevel data might suggest that tariffs and political friction have left the underlying economic relationship largely unaffected - or have even inadvertently intensified it. This first impression, however, is misleading. This Report analyses the transatlantic trade relations in greater detail and reveals how much the US-tariffs distorted trade flows with the EU last year.

JEL-codes: F02 F10 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:342428

DOI: 10.67087/12.21353

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