Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and COVID-19 in the UK

Christopher Bülte and Rebekka Buse

No 174, Working Paper Series in Economics from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management

Abstract: We quantify the economic costs in the UK since the Brexit referendum and discern them from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The simultaneous effects of COVID-19 and Brexit are disentangled by evaluating pandemic-related indices relative to economic losses. These losses are measured with a synthetic control method, allowing for a causal interpretation of Brexit. We demonstrate that the UK has suffered exceptionally during the pandemic and that these additional losses are attributed to the long-term economic effects of Brexit.

Keywords: Brexit; COVID-19; Economic effects; Synthetic controls (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H0 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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