Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates

Zareh Asatryan, Annika Havlik, Friedrich Heinemann and Justus Nover

No 19-025, ZEW Discussion Papers from ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Abstract: The "true" size of fiscal multipliers is widely debated by economists and policy makers as large (small) multipliers provide arguments to expand (cut) public spending. Within a meta-analytical framework, we ask whether the large observed variance in multiplier estimates can be explained by the national imprint and various author incentives. For this purpose, we use data on economists' personal characteristics including results from a selfconducted author survey. Our evidence is consistent with the hypotheses that the national background of researchers and the interests of donors financing the research matter for the degree and direction of multiplier estimates. These potential biases largely disappear for teams of international co-authors.

Keywords: biased research; fiscal multipliers; funding bias; publication bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B4 D72 E62 H11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:zewdip:19025

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