Producer Supply Response for Area Planted of Seven Major U.S. Crops

Brian R. Williams and Gayle Pounds-Barnett

No 340567, Economic Research Report from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Baseline provides a 10-year outlook for seven major U.S. crops (corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, barley, oats, and cotton). The baseline plays an important role in predicting farm program expenditures in the President’s annual budget proposal. To provide the best possible projections, it is necessary to frequently revisit the underlying models behind the baseline to ensure that they are theoretically consistent and produce realistic projections. This study examined the performance of the existing area planted equations for seven major U.S. crops in the baseline model relative to observed historical area planted values. It subsequently estimates a system of equations for the crops to produce price consistent supply (i.e., higher price increases the supply of the crop associated with higher prices but decreases other crop supplies). Projections created from the resulting price and net return elasticities are shown to be an improvement over the existing U.S. base line equations.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing; Productivity Analysis; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 2023-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/340567/files/err-327.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersrr:340567

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.340567

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Economic Research Report from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().