The Demographic Transition in a Unified Growth Modelof the English Economy

James Foreman-Peck and Peng Zhou

No E2019/8, Cardiff Economics Working Papers from Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section

Abstract: A dynamic stochastic unified growth model is estimated from English economy data for almost a millennium. At the core of the (seven) overlapping generations, rational expectations structure is household choice about target number and quality of children. The trends of births, deaths, population and, the real wage, are closely matched by the estimated model. In the 19th century English fertility transition, the model shows how the generalized child price relative to the child quality price rose. The rising opportunity cost of education was as decisive for the transition as the parental shift to child quality.

Keywords: Economic Development; Demography; Unified Growth; Overlapping Generations; English Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 N13 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2019-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-dge, nep-evo, nep-gro, nep-his and nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2019/8

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