Interest Rates Under Falling Stars

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

No 6571, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Macro-finance theory implies that trend ination and the equilibrium real interest rate are fundamental determinants of the yield curve. However, empirical models of the term structure of interest rates generally assume that these fundamentals are constant. We show that accounting for time variation in these underlying long-run trends is crucial for understanding the dynamics of Treasury yields and predicting excess bond returns. We introduce a new arbitrage-free model that captures the key role that long-run trends play in determining interest rates. The model also provides new, more plausible estimates of the term premium and accurate out-of-sample yield forecasts.

Keywords: yield curve; macro-finance; inflation trend; equilibrium real interest rate; shifting endpoints; bond risk premia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E44 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Interest Rates under Falling Stars (2020)
Working Paper: Interest Rates Under Falling Stars (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6571

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