Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations

Martin Lettau, Sydney Ludvigson and Daniel Greenwald

No 10336, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Three mutually uncorrelated economic disturbances that we measure empirically explain 85% of the quarterly variation in real stock market wealth since 1952. A model is employed to interpret these disturbances in terms of three latent primitive shocks. In the short run, shocks that affect the willingness to bear risk independently of macroeconomic fundamentals explain most of the variation in the market. In the long run, the market is profoundly affected by shocks that reallocate the rewards of a given level of production between workers and shareholders. Productivity shocks play a small role in historical stock market fluctuations at all horizons.

Keywords: Labor income; Stock market wealth; Stock prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G12 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-his
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations (2014)
Working Paper: The Origins of Stock Market Fluctuations (2014)
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