Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690-1871

Liam Brunt

No 10530, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were depressed by unusually poor weather; and those in the late 1850s were inflated by unusually good weather. This has led researchers to overestimate the underlying growth of yields over the period by perhaps 50 per cent. Correcting for this effect would largely reconcile the conflicting primal and dual estimates of productivity growth over the period.

Keywords: agriculture; Productivity; weather (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N5 O3 Q1 Q2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-eff and nep-his
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690–1871 (2015)
Working Paper: Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690-1871 (2015)
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