Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Vincent Reinhart, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

No 11096, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

Keywords: Capital flows; Commodity prices; Financial crises; Sudden stops (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E44 F44 F6 G01 N10 N20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac and nep-opm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (76)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
Working Paper: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
Working Paper: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
Working Paper: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 (2016)
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