Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates

Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart

No 11618, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The Federal Reserve publishes since 2012 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members’ views regarding what federal funds rate will be necessary for the FOMC to achieve its statutory targets. The views or “projections†pertain to the end of the current and the next two or three years, and the “longer run.†We use a simple model to interpolate the projections between these discrete points in time, estimate the interest rates one, two and three years ahead, and study how they evolve with macroeconomic conditions. News regarding the labour market, but not inflation, affects the projections in the sample period.

Keywords: Federal Reserve; Monetary policy; Interest rate expectations; Interpolation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP11618 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: Joining the Dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11618

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP11618

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().