Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Sergei Guriev, Daniel Treisman and Cevat Giray Aksoy

No 12897, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: How does international trade affect the popularity of governments and leaders? We provide the first large-scale, systematic evidence that the divide between skilled and unskilled workers worldwide is producing corresponding differences in the response of political preferences to trade shocks. Using a unique data set including 118 countries and nearly 450,000 individuals, we find that growth in high skill intensive exports (of goods and services) increases approval of the leader and incumbent government among skilled individuals. Growth in high skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. High skill intensive trade has no such effect among the unskilled. To identify exogenous variation in international trade, we exploit the time-varying effects of air and sea distances on bilateral trade flows. Our findings suggest that the political effects of international trade differ with skill intensity and that skilled individuals respond differently from their unskilled counterparts to trade shocks.

Keywords: International trade; Political approval; Skill intensity of trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F14 G02 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2022)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2020)
Working Paper: Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide (2018)
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