Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns

Irina Zviadadze

No 13414, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This article develops an empirical methodology to determine which economic shocks span risk in asset returns and fluctuations in discount rate and cash flow news. A theoretically motivated shock identification scheme in a present-value model identifies economic shocks. The choice of identifying restrictions is based on the properties of the term structure of risk in expected returns in the data and in equilibrium models. Empirically, I relate equity discount rate news and cash flow news to multiple sources of risk in the variance of consumption growth. Both types of news are almost equally important for the aggregate market risk.

Keywords: Incremental expected return; Incremental expected dividend; Permanent and transient shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C52 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP13414 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13414

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP13414

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().