Using RCTs to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics

Michael Kremer, Adrien Bougen, Yue Huang and Edward Miguel

No 13443, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We assess evidence from randomized control trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long-run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data, improved participant tracking methods, alternative research designs, and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.

Keywords: Randomized controlled trials; Long-run impacts; Panel (longitudinal) data; Development economics; Cash transfers; Child health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp, nep-hea and nep-lam
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Using Rcts to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics (2018)
Working Paper: Using RCTs to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics (2018)
Working Paper: Using RCTs to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics (2018)
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