Correlation Risk, Strings and Asset Prices

Antonio Mele, Walter Distaso and Grigory Vilkov

No 13873, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Standard asset pricing theories treat return volatility and correlations as two intimately related quantities, which hinders achieving a neat definition of a correlation premium. We introduce a model with a continuum of securities that have returns driven by a string. This model leads to new arbitrage pricing restrictions, according to which, holding any asset requires compensation for the granular exposure of this asset returns to changes in all other asset returns: an average correlation premium. We find that this correlation premium is both statistically and economically significant, and considerably fluctuates, driven by time-varying correlations and global market developments. The model explains the cross-section of expected returns and their counter-cyclicality without making reference to common factors affecting asset returns. It also explains the time-series behavior of the premium for the risk of changes in asset correlations (the correlation-risk premium), including its inverse relation with realized correlations.

Keywords: Correlation premium; Correlation-risk premium; Cross-section of returns; Arbitrage pricing; String models; Implied correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 G13 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-rmg
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