From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes

Juan F Jimeno and Henrique Basso

No 14092, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Demographic changes and a new wave of innovation and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to a reduction in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. Assuming different labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity only partially compensate for these effects.

Keywords: Population ageing; Automation; Innovation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 O31 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem and nep-gro
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes (2021)
Working Paper: From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes (2020)
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