 Assessing the Consequences of Quarantines During a PandemicRikard Forslid and Mathias Herzing () No 14699, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research Abstract: This paper analyzes the epidemiological and economic e§ects of quarantines. We use a basic epidemiologic model, a SEIR-model, that is calibrated to roughly resemble the COVID- 19 pandemic, and we assume that individuals that become infected or are isolated on average lose a share of their productivity. An early quarantine will essentially postpone but not alter the course of the infection at a cost that increases in the duration and the extent of the quarantine. A quarantine starting at a later stage of the pandemic reduces the number of infected persons and economic losses, but generates a higher peak level of infectious people. A longer quarantine dampens the peak of the pandemic and reduces deaths, but implies higher economic losses. Both the peak share of infectious individuals and economic losses are U-shaped in relation to the share of the population in quarantine. A quarantine covering a moderate share of the population leads to a lower peak, fewer deaths and lower economic costs, but it implies that the peak of the pandemic occurs earlier. Keywords: Pandemics; Quarantine; Seir-model; Covid-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14699 Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from Access Statistics for this paper More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK. |
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