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Assessing the Consequences of Quarantines During a Pandemic

Rikard Forslid and Mathias Herzing (mathias.herzing@oru.se)

No 14699, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper analyzes the epidemiological and economic e§ects of quarantines. We use a basic epidemiologic model, a SEIR-model, that is calibrated to roughly resemble the COVID- 19 pandemic, and we assume that individuals that become infected or are isolated on average lose a share of their productivity. An early quarantine will essentially postpone but not alter the course of the infection at a cost that increases in the duration and the extent of the quarantine. A quarantine starting at a later stage of the pandemic reduces the number of infected persons and economic losses, but generates a higher peak level of infectious people. A longer quarantine dampens the peak of the pandemic and reduces deaths, but implies higher economic losses. Both the peak share of infectious individuals and economic losses are U-shaped in relation to the share of the population in quarantine. A quarantine covering a moderate share of the population leads to a lower peak, fewer deaths and lower economic costs, but it implies that the peak of the pandemic occurs earlier.

Keywords: Pandemics; Quarantine; Seir-model; Covid-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D42 D62 H10 I18 L10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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