Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2

Chryssi Giannitsarou, Stephen Kissler and Flavio Toxvaerd

No 14852, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon.

Keywords: Covid-19; Economic epidemiology; Social distancing; Waning immunity; Optimal policy for infection control; Seirs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E61 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-ore
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2 (2021)
Working Paper: Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-COV-2 (2020)
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