Caveats for Economists: Epidemiology-Based Modelling of COVID19 and Model Misspecifications

Eran Yashiv, Yinon Bar-On, Tatiana Baron and Ron Milo

No 15107, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Rapidly expanding research on COVID19 in Economics typically posits an economy subject to a model of epidemiological dynamics, which is at the core of the analysis. We place this model on the foundations of an epidemiological analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission timescales. The contribution is twofold. First, we formulate a full model with epidemiologically-based and clinically-based parameterization. The model features two blocks: an infection transmission block, described by the SEIR-Erlang model, and a clinical block, characterizing the development of symptoms, hospitalization, ICU admission, and recovery or death. The latter is important for the analysis of dynamics of the public health system. Second, we show that there is often serious mis-specification of the model, erroneously characterizing a relatively slow-moving disease, thereby distorting the policymaker decisions towards less severe, delayed intervention. Moreover, the scale of the disease is under-estimated. We also discuss misguided modelling of lockdown policies.

Keywords: The economy and epidemiological dynamics; Covid19; Transmission timescales; Optimal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H12 I12 I18 J17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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