Slums and Pandemics

Cezar Santos, Luiz Brotherhood, Tiago Cavalcanti and Daniel Da Mata

No 15131, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper studies the role of slums in shaping the economic and health dynamics of pandemics. Using data from millions of mobile phones in Brazil, an event-study analysis shows that residents of overcrowded slums engaged in less social distancing after the outbreak of Covid-19. We develop a choice-theoretic equilibrium model in which poorer agents live in high-density slums and others do not. The model is calibrated to Rio de Janeiro. Slum dwellers account for a disproportionately high number of infections and deaths. In a counterfactual scenario without slums, deaths fall overall but increase in non-slum neighborhoods. Policy simulations indicate that: reallocating medical resources cuts deaths and raises output and the welfare of both groups; mild lockdowns favor slum individuals by mitigating the demand for hospital beds whereas strict confinements mostly delay the evolution of the pandemic; and cash transfers benefit slum residents in detriment of others, highlighting important distributional effects.

Keywords: Covid-19; Slums; Health; Social distancing; Public policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 D62 E17 I10 I18 O18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Slums and pandemics (2022)
Working Paper: Slums and Pandemics (2020)
Working Paper: Slums and Pandemics (2020)
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