The Great Depression as a Saving Glut

Eric Monnet and Victor Degorce

No 15287, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Facing the Great Depression, Keynes blamed the detrimental consequences of precautionary savings on growth (paradox of thrift). Yet, the magnitude, forms and effects of savings accumulation remain unexplored in studies on the international economic crash of the 1930s. Based on new data for 22 countries, we document that the Great Depression was associated with a large international increase in savings institutions’ deposits. Banking crises spurred precautionary savings. Panel estimations show a negative conditional correlation between real GDP and deposits in savings institutions when a banking crisis hit. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the negative effect of precautionary savings on growth was at least as large as the direct effect of the decline in banking activity. The evolution of the saving rate began to reverse as countries left the gold standard.

Keywords: Great depression; Banking crises; Precautionary savings; Paradox of thrift; Savings banks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B22 E21 E51 G01 G21 N2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-fdg, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-pke
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Journal Article: The Great Depression as a Savings Glut (2024)
Working Paper: The Great Depression as a Savings Glut (2024)
Working Paper: The Great Depression as a Savings Glut (2024)
Working Paper: The Great Depression as a Savings Glut (2024)
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