Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior

Gürkaynak, Refet, Hakan Kara, Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin and Sang Seok Lee
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Burçin Kısacıkoğlu and Refet S. Gürkaynak

No 15289, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using eventstudies and ask whether an information effect, where the public attributes the policy surprise to an unobserved state of the economy that the central bank is signaling by its policy may explain the abnormality. It turns out that many informational assumptions make a standard two- country New Keynesian model match this behavior. To identify the particular mechanism, we condition on multiple asset prices in the eventstudy and model implications for these. We find that there is heterogeneity in this dimension in the eventstudy and no model with a single regime can match the evidence. Further, even after conditioning on possible information effects driving longer term interest rates, there appear to be other drivers of exchange rates. Our results show that existing models have a long way to go in reconciling eventstudy analysis with model-based mechanisms of asset pricing.

Keywords: Exchange rate response to monetary policy; Central bank information effect; Open economy macro-finance modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E44 E52 E58 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior (2021)
Chapter: Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior (2020)
Working Paper: Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior (2020)
Working Paper: Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior (2020)
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