Mortgage Market Disruptions

Paolo Surico, Philippe Bracke, Karen Croxson, Daoud Fakhri and Tommaso Valletti

No 15381, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Using the universe of residential mortgage contracts offered and originated in the United Kingdom, we document the major trends associated with the pandemic of 2020 and compare them to the financial crisis of 2007-09. Looking at initial impact, the mortgage market disruptions of 2020 were larger and more abrupt than in 2007-09; as of June 2020, the recovery had been much faster, although uncertainty remains over whether the momentum will persist. Products with loan-to-value above 90% or loan-to-income above 4 took the largest hit but their market shares had begun to rebound since May 2020. In contrast, the Great Recession was characterised by a more gradual but far more persistent decline in originations, especially among riskier borrowers, as the recovery did not start until 18 months after the onset of the financial crisis. The share of remortgagors that extract housing equity has declined significantly in the first months of the 2020 pandemic and the amount withdrawn has been typically smaller than in most of the previous years. By the end of 2020 Q2, roughly one in five mortgages were benefitting from payment deferrals while repossession orders had virtually disappeared following the temporary ban introduced by the Financial Conduct Authority in March 2020.

Keywords: Credit supply; Mortgage originations; Covid pandemic; Financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G21 G51 H12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP15381 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15381

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP15381

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().