Expectations of Active Mutual Fund Performance

Magnus Dahlquist, Markus Ibert and Felix Wilke

No 15548, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We recover a forward-looking distribution of expected abnormal returns (alphas) for active equity mutual funds from analyst ratings. Professional analysts believe that alphas are dispersed, that the average fund will underperform, and that the largest funds will outperform. We estimate a rational expectations learning model of fund performance and confront the model-implied expectations based on fund size, perceived skill, and fees with analysts' expectations. Analysts and the rational learner respond similarly to changes in perceived skill and fees, but in contrast to the rational learner, analysts do not believe in a negative impact of fund size on fund returns. The absence of such decreasing returns to scale in analysts' expectations and the presence thereof in actual fund returns make it difficult to reconcile analysts' expectations with rational expectations, but can help explain the size of the industry together with its poor performance.

Keywords: Alpha; Expectation formation; Mutual funds (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 G14 G23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa
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